Our old friend Livan Hernandez is throwing tonight for Colorado, and if the Giants can’t muster a bunch of runs against him, it’ll be the latest and saddest indication of their chronic offensive anemia.

Livan has some embarrassing numbers this year, including 13.3 hits and only 3.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. In three starts with the Rockies, who claimed him off the scrap heap from Minnesota, Hernandez has allowed 25 hits and 21 ER in 12 1/3 IP.

Despite strong career numbers against Livan, it would be a fine time to rest Aaron Rowand, who is 2 for his last 18 and has made some terrible throws lately. Jon Miller noted on the radio this week that he couldn’t reach the cutoff on a reasonably easy throw toward third. Given his reputation, you have to wonder if he’s playing hurt. We should probably assume he is.

Often overlooked in all the gamery gamerness this year is the point at which a player stops inspiring his teammates and starts hurting his team because he can’t turn on an inside fastball or make a strong throw from the outfield.

With four years and $48 million left on Rowand’s contract after 2008, the Giants need to get serious about making him rest more. He shouldn’t be a #3 or #4 hitter, but he’s a nice player to have around. Let’s make sure he stays that way by keeping him as healthy as possible. Start with a rest tonight, and let the rest of the Giants knock Livan’s slop all over the yard.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Matt Palmer had his cup of coffee, or more accurately, spilled most of it on Brian Sabean’s new white cashmere rug, and he’s on his way back to Fresnoville. Osiris Matos is up. Matos or someone else will have to move soon, though, because Jonathan Sanchez is slated to start Monday.

Starting Thursday, MLB will use video replay on controversial home runs. Odds are good it will come into use at least once at Mays Field before the season is over, seeing how often fans reach above and perhaps over the left and center field fences to catch deep flies.

I can remember one such case, I think it was Kelly Stinnett of the Diamondbacks who hit it. Bonus points if you can find the game.

One interesting aspect about this new, limited use of replay is that it won’t eliminate umpires’ judgment calls:

Any decision regarding the placement of runners, should a home run call be reversed, will be made by the crew chief. As is done in cases of fan interference, the crew chief will place the baserunners where he believes they would have been had the call been made properly. 

The default ruling is usually ground rule double, so imagine how many teams will be screwed when a fast runner on first is allowed to advance only to third. It’ll particularly hurt teams with a lot of speed and not much power. One team comes to mind immediately.

That leads me to propose a rule change: on a ground rule double where the ball bounces over the fence, a runner on first should be allowed to score if…

a) The ball hops the fence in the farthest reaches. In symmetrical parks, this would be roughly between the power alleys. In asymmetrical parks, it shouldn’t be difficult to designate the “extra base” zone. At Mays Field, it could be from the 404–foot notch to the 421–foot mark.

b) There are two outs. With two outs, a runner takes off on contact. Only the Bengie Molinas of the world can’t score from first on a two-out double, so let’s just make it an easy call. 

A ground rule double due to fan interference is different, especially when the ball is hit down the line and a fan reaches over the box seat rail. But I think the two-out scenario above makes sense here, too.

Whatever the case, any fan who interferes with a ball in play should get frogmarched out of the stadium, but not before being pelted with mustard-soaked hot dog wrappers. For season-ticket holders, if it happens a second time, how about a possible revocation of their tickets? That’ll learn ‘em!

Video replay to make accurate home run calls: the slippery slope into a newfangled lake of hellfire, or a welcome sign that baseball has finally entered the second half of the 20th century? Discuss.

SI writer Jon Heyman leads his latest rumor and notes column with speculation from an unnamed executive that San Francisco is Vallejo native C.C. Sabathia’s first choice as a free-agent landing spot.

Heyman then hems and haws about how questionable this scenario is and ends up tabbing the Yankees as the early favorites because, duh, it’s going to come down to money. It’s a fine way to turn a bottom-of-the-column item (speculation from an anonymous “executive who knows [Sabathia] well”) into a headline in the dog days of August.

The only conceivable way the Giants go after Sabathia is 1) if they unload Zito and the rest of his contract and 2) Sabathia agrees to some kind of hometown discount. Ain’t neither likely to happen, girlfriend.

Losing the chance to go after Sabathia: yet another feather in the dunce cap of the Zito contract. But one could argue that overbidding for C.C.’s services, which will likely cost more than Johan Santana’s extension cost the Mets (6 years, $137.5 M), is a foolish endeavor, too.

Pretend Zito wasn’t a Giant. Would you want the Giants to go after Sabathia? Is there any way this team could keep Zito and sign Sabathia? Discuss.

Part 1 is here.

On to the pitching staff. I actually started with this part a few days ago,  but I got to the bullpen and started twitching and drooling on the keyboard. Beyond Brian Wilson, what in Jehosephat's name can you predict about this bunch of goons? Bruce Bochy had a recent brainstorm that Tyler Walker should only be out there against righties, who are hitting under .200 against him. But even if he thrives for the next six weeks, is anyone really enthused about penciling in The Big Sweaty as Official ROOGY of Opening Day 2009?

I dig him -- S.F. Homie and all that -- and that rumble you hear, the collective throat-clearing of all our local Mando-haters just now realizing Tyler is their new anti-guy, only makes me want to defend him more. So if he wants to come back on the cheap, fine. No guarantees about the eighth inning, or any inning, but I'll mildly advocate for him simply because depth is always nice.

Speaking of damning with faint praise: Jack Taschner. Again, cool nicknames only go so far, and "The Special Agent" goes farther than most, but I'm not feeling the love these days. Nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning and difficulty against righties is not what you want from your main set-up guy, and that's what Bochy made Taschner at the same time he (slightly) demoted The Big Sweaty. But good to have around? Sigh. Be lights-out against lefties in the final six weeks, and I'll show more, shall we say, enthusiasm.

See? I've got that same feeling again -- relievers are relievers are relievers, Romo Sadlershaw Matospineli blah blah blah. Let's just say that any of these young 'uns could stick, or none of 'em could. What I really want for Christmas is a healthy Merkin Valdez and an in-command Alex Hinshaw. Those two plus Billy Sadler minus half the walks could make things interesting next year. If Valdez remains a question mark through the rest of the season, watch for Sabean to shoot for a grizzled veteran reliever or two. Any of these guys worth a few mil? How about another round of Keiichi Yabu? My gut feeling is Sabean will convince management to set aside some dollars for at least one expensive reliever.

Now the easy part: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Correia. Those are your starting five, though I can't shake the suspicion that one could be traded this winter. Not Lincecum and not Zito, for wildly divergent reasons. But Correia might intrigue a bargain shopper, Sanchez could be a sell-high kind of move, and Cain, well, it would be like Billy Beane trading Danny Haren. Bewildering, disappointing, but the haul Brian Sabean could get in return makes the conversation worthwhile. That conversation must not involve Sabean drinking Jager shots at a topless bar in Vegas, and it must include the fact, sometimes overlooked, that the Giants don’t have an upper-level minor leaguer ready to step into Cain’s shoes. Matt Palmer was the top guy on the AA-AAA roster when Sanchez went down. Proceed soberly, my friend.

Much will depend on Noah Lowry, who reportedly might throw in winter ball. Will he be any good? Who knows. Just counting on him to be healthy would be reckless. His injury was too weird, too severe, and too intimate with his left arm. The other wild card is Correia, not just how he pitches down the stretch but how much he might make in arbitration this winter. This was his first arb year, and he signed for a touch more than a mil. Double that, and we enter some interesting cost/benefit territory.

As you probably know the Giants have set a franchise record for most major league debuts in one season. Now I’m addicted to the anticipation of seeing someone in black and orange for the first time.

I want more, but there aren’t many candidates left. Dig this: only one player on the 40–man roster has never appeared in the bigs. How often does that happen?

Of course, the odd man out is the guy I adopted last year on McCovey Chronicles, Kelvin Pichardo. (If you don’t know about McChronic player adoption, hmm, there used to be an MCC wiki page or something that explained it… anyone know what happened to that?)

Pichardo has been a rooting interest of mine ever since Sabean nabbed him in exchange for Michael Tucker. If Pichardo ever makes the bigs, I thought to myself at the time of the trade, that’s not a bad return for the late-season dump of a near-worthless veteran. Of course, I didn’t realize that everyone from A ball on up would make the big leagues in 2007–2008. Except Pichardo. Come on, Sabes! 

Come September, we’ll probably see call-ups who have made their debuts already: Schierholtz, McClain, Misch, Espineli, Matos, etc. I doubt we’ll see any brand-newbies; the Giants already have plenty of young guys who should get as much playing time as possible down the stretch.

Which current Giant minor leaguers are you eager to see in September? Discuss.

Now that the draft picks have signed and the latest round of youngsters have reported for duty, it’s a good time to take another wild stab in the dark at the 2009 opening day roster. Today I’ll look at position players. The usual caveat of “barring injury” applies.

Behind the plate, I’m betting on Bengie Molina. If he’s traded this winter, it means more pressure on Pablo Sandoval or Buster Posey to hurry up and take the starting job. And unless the Giants trade for another grizzled vet, it also means Holm or Alfonzo would be a significant presence on next year’s team. I don’t think the Giants want either of those scenarios. Unless they’re blown away with a trade offer, Molina stays, with Sandoval as his backup unless he completely flops in his late-‘08 audition. Sandoval’s ability to play 1B also provides flexibility.

Around the infield, the only sure thing is three bases. Every infield has them. And dirt. Nice soft red well-groomed dirt. This we know about the Giants’ infield. Otherwise, we know more about the host site of the 2024 Summer Olympics — I vote for Havana after a long successful campaign led by El Presidente Elian Gonzalez. The official mascot is Chucho, a tightly rolled cigar with arms and legs, which makes Garry Trudeau either very happy or very sad.

Smoke up, kids. How about Ivan Ochoa, starting SS? And Travis Ishikawa, at least a platoon 1B? For a while I’ve been on the bring-Rich Aurilia-back bandwagon as utility guy and RH bat off the bench. And how about Eugenio Velez as another ute, though I have my doubts that he’ll ever be another Chone Figgins. Or another Jack Kennedy, for that matter. Kevin Frandsen gets every chance to win the starting 2B job, and 3B is filled via free agency or trade. I never thought I’d say it, but Adrian Beltre is looking better and better. (Travis Denker, you ask? Needs another year in AAA, I say. Emmanuel Burriss also goes back to AAA.)

In the outfield, Fred Lewis and Aaron Rowand are in left and center. Randy Winn and Dave Roberts make no sense on the same roster, so I see a trade. More likely the Giants try to pawn off Roberts and eat most of his ‘09 salary. I just don’t see the Giants handing Nate Schierholtz the starting RF job out of spring training, no matter how many home runs he hits off the Republic of Angola’s ace reliever. It’s not just his bat: I think the team is worried, and rightly so, about RF defense at Mays Field. The Giants’ fly-ball pitchers need premium D in the outfield, especially in RF. Misplays there turn outs into doubles, singles into triples. So unless they’re blown away by a trade offer, I think Winn stays, with Schierholtz broken in slowly. (The ideal right fielder for Mays Field is a guy with plus speed, a great arm, and a right-handed bat whose home runs don’t die on the right-center field warning track. Like this guy.)

For now, I’ll round out the OF with Schierholtz and John Bowker, but don’t be surprised if one is traded this winter. Brian Horwitz might make a good 5^th OF and provide RH balance to the roster. So:

Molina
Sandoval
Ishikawa
Aurilia
Frandsen
Ochoa
Velez
outside 3B
Lewis
Rowand
Winn
Schierholtz
Bowker/Horwitz

Opening Day lineup:

Winn rf
Frandsen 2b
Lewis lf
Mysterio 3B
Molina c
Rowand cf
Ishikawa 1b
Ochoa ss

Remember, this is not necessarily my ideal nor is it my prediction of the roster next June or August. It’s also woefully short on power, again, unless the mystery 3B is Troy Glaus, 2001 Edition.

(Photo courtesy of infomatique via a Creative Commons license.)

Me and my baby in ‘96. Tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1996. It was late September back in ‘96, what a very special time for kids.

Not only are there a ton of great pop songs about that year, it happens to be the last time the Giants had an overwhelming youth infusion. Before you start drawing parallels to the team’s current situation — terrible team in ‘96, shocking turnaround in ‘97! — let’s take a toke off the wayback machine. How many of those fresh-faced rooks from ‘96 would actually ‘Stick around, heh, and make a difference in the team’s renaissance?

Here’s the roster.

Here are the 13 who made their major-league debuts in 1996:

Bill Mueller
Jacob Cruz
Jay Canizaro
Desi Wilson*
Dax Jones*
Wilson Delgado
Keith Williams*
Marcus Jensen
Doug Mirabelli
Steve Bourgeois*
Steve Soderstrom*
Dan Carlson
Osvaldo Fernandez (a Cuban defector)

Here are a few others who still qualified as rookies or nearly so:

Shawn Estes
Marvin Benard
Chris Hook*
Doug Creek

The ones with asterisks never played in the majors again after 1996. From this group came four useful players for the early-Sabean-era Giants: one starting pitcher (Estes), one starting outfielder (Benard), one starting infielder (Mueller), one backup catcher (Mirabelli).

Cruz, Jensen, Delgado and Creek eked out a few more years as second-stringers for other clubs. Jensen is notable because the Giants traded him for Brian Johnson, who hit one of the most famous home runs in team history. For argument’s sake, let’s predict that roughly 25% of the rookies who have made the roster this year will contribute to the big club in the next few years.

Today’s assignment: tell us which ones — no more than five, please — and feel free to explain your predictions.

I’ll start: Alex Hinshaw, John Bowker, Ivan Ochoa, and Merkin Valdez. Hinshaw’s stuff is legit; his control is not. But as a lefty, the team will cut him slack. Bowker’s swing is short and powerful. His main problem is pitch selection, which he knows he has to fix. I think he can. His 1B/OF flexibility also makes him more likely to stick. Ochoa’s been very impressive in the field and won’t need to hit much to justify a roster spot. Plus he gives the Giants breathing room to send Burriss back to the minors for seasoning. I pick Valdez more out of hope than reason. His injury history doesn’t bode well, but if, if, if he can stay healthy, he could be Felix Rodriguez-ish in the bullpen for a few years. (Felix circa ‘99–’01, that is.)

I almost included Pablo Sandoval, but when Posey signs, Sandoval will be blocked at catcher. He’ll have to hit like a first baseman to get significant time, and it’s too early to know if he can. I think he’s more likely to be trade bait in the next year or two.

(Photo courtesy of Salim Virji via a Creative Commons license.)

Another puke job by the Giant bullpen today makes me want to can the lot of ‘em. Instead I’ll focus my wrath on Bruce Bochy for something he did and something he didn’t do.

With a man on second, the Astros already up by two and two outs in the eighth, Bochy brought in Tyler Walker to pitch to the weak-hitting Humberto Quintero. He wanted the righty-righty matchup, I guess. Lefty Alex Hinshaw had already coughed up Berkman’s two-run jack and a monster double by Blum, sure, but after Blum’s double, Hinshaw struck out Pence and Newhan. He seemed to have settled in. Why not let him finish the inning? Instead, the flammable Walker entered and allowed an RBI single. It didn’t have much bearing on the final, as the Giants went meekly in the ninth, but it chapped my hide.

And what Bochy didn’t do: He didn’t bring Brian Wilson his best relief pitcher into a single game in the Houston series. What is he waiting for? I know the answer: a save situation. If there was ever a save situation, it was with Darin Erstad at the plate in the 7^th and a runner on third. Instead, Walker’s little arsonist friend Jack Taschner was summoned. Single, tie game. Even better, why not think out of the box and ask Wilson to start the 8^th with the Astros’ best hitters up? Instead, it was Yabu, who instantly fell behind Tejada and allowed a leadoff single. How about Wilson now, since the dreaded Berkman was up? Nope.

It’s too much to ask Bochy to defy baseball convention and bring his closer into a tie game in the 8^th, but it would have gained my eternal respect. Well, not eternal. Temporary and grudging is more like it.

PLODAG: Kevin Correia didn’t have great stuff but got his act together and should have gone 7 innings with only 3 ER. He’s thrown a few good games in a row. If it weren’t for the oblique injury, what kind of season might he be putting together?

The Upside: Travis Ishikawa, who made two excellent plays in the field that probably saved a run in the early going, and an opposite-field double. I love opposite-field doubles.  

Ouch. The Giants just demoted Eugene Espineli, the guy who was supposed to go to the Olympics. His promotion to S.F. last month trumped his Olympic berth, but now, just as Team USA begins its competition, he’s back in Fresno. I guess the silver lining is he doesn’t have to endure the nasty humidity or air pollution of Beijing. I’m sure he would beg to differ.

(Speaking of Team USA, when I clicked on the live Web feed of the USA-Netherlands game last night the first thing I saw was former Giant prospect Shairon Martis pitching to Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz looked at a called third strike.)

According to Andy Baggarly, Matt Palmer replaces Espineli. Someone will need to be bumped from the 40–man roster, as Palmer wasn’t on it before. With five catchers currently listed, I would vote Guillermo Rodriguez off the island.  

Baggarly, who is absolutely running circles around his competition, also reports that Buster Posey is all but signed. I guess Posey news merits its own post; in journalism this is called “burying the lead.” (That’s lead as in “take me to your leader,” not lead as in “lead pipe.”)

Baggarly says it’s “in the neighborhood of $7.5 M” for a big-league contract, more than triple the bonuses they gave to Lincecum and Villalona. He also says fourth-rounder Brandon Crawford, a shortstop at UCLA, has also signed for $375,000. That would wrap up all their top draftees, as third-rounder Roger Kieschnick signed yesterday.

A couple other notes before today’s matinee kicks off — with all three newbies in the lineup, to boot:

* Congrats to Ryan Rohlinger on his first big-league hit and RBI last night. Now just do something about that number 57. It’s the inverse of 75, which has to be some kind of bad luck. Speaking of which…

* Zito’s ugly implosion last night masked some subtle but heartening trends. First, he wasn’t hit hard. Bad luck (bloop single), bad calls (Wigginton safe instead of out at first base), bad D (Lewis missing the cutoff man on the first sac fly), and a bad bullpen (Sadler’s two hit batsmen) added to his nightmare inning. I’m not letting Zito off the hook, but this also marks the second straight game, and third of four, when one bad inning — one horrible inning — has ruined an otherwise solid outing. He’s also throwing his fastball harder (86, 87, 88 MPH) and his curve with more bite these days. His walk rates are still inexcusable, but the strikeouts are coming back (27 BB, 33 K in his last 41.1 IP), and he’s doing a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Is it possible that he’s close to fixing the mechanics, and now he needs to work on his head? I’m not hoping for a return to 2003, but perhaps by year’s end he can creep back up to league average, which is roughly what he was last year. (For more on what makes for “league average,” click here.) 

Question: If Posey signs a major-league contract, is he immediately on the 40–man roster?